dairy products,
purchase prices,
milk price
Surplus of Dairy Products Pressures Purchase Prices in the EU
An unforeseen increase in raw milk production in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a surplus of commodities are contributing to a decrease in purchase prices in the EU, reports Georgiy Kukhaleishvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers.
According to preliminary data from the European Commission, in January 2026, the average price for raw milk in the EU was 47.31 eurocents per kg, which is 1.74% less than in December 2025. Compared to the price as of January 2025, milk in the EU has become 11.92% cheaper. In January, the price for extra-grade milk in Ukraine was 31.89 eurocents per kg.
Compared to December, the price for raw milk increased in 5 EU member states, namely in Belgium to 57.02 eurocents per kg (+41.56%), Greece to 55.70 eurocents per kg (+0.04%), Croatia to 51.04 eurocents per kg (+0.08%), Hungary to 49.35 eurocents per kg (+0.20%), and Romania to 45.56 eurocents per kg (+0.33%).
In January, purchase prices did not change in Bulgaria, Germany, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Cyprus, and Malta compared to December 2025.
Over the last month, raw milk prices decreased in 13 countries, including Denmark to 41.90 eurocents per kg (-8.75%), France to 47.35 eurocents per kg (-5.36%), the Netherlands to 39.50 eurocents per kg (-9.20%), and Poland to 46.29 eurocents per kg (-2.71%), which are considered leading exporters of dairy products.
The most expensive raw milk is in Cyprus (66.70 eurocents per kg) and Malta (62.86 eurocents per kg). The lowest prices for milk are received by farmers in Estonia (37.42 eurocents per kg) and the Netherlands (39.50 eurocents per kg).
Compared to January 2025, raw milk prices increased in 7 European countries, namely in Belgium (+4.37%), Greece (+1.27%), Spain (+9.49%), Croatia (+2.59%), Malta (+3.15%), Portugal (+3.90%), and Finland (+7.37%).
The milk price decreased in 19 countries. Milk prices dropped the most in the Netherlands (-29.46%), Lithuania (-27.95%), Estonia (-26.41%), Denmark (-24.86%), Ireland (-20.70%), Germany (-15.43%), and Poland (-14.01%) compared to the same period last year.
Georgiy Kukhaleishvili notes that in the fourth quarter of 2025, there was a sharp increase in raw milk production in the EU due to favorable weather. A warm autumn, absence of drought, increased pastures, sufficient feed supply, and a reduction in farmers' feeding costs contributed to the increase in milk yield volumes. Milk production grew the most in Eastern European countries. Farmers in Northern and Western Europe achieved stabilization of milk production costs. At the same time, surpluses of cheap dairy products appeared in EU warehouses, which are putting pressure on purchase prices.
Most likely, the anomalous increase in milk production in Europe in the fourth quarter was an exception rather than a trend. In 2025, the consolidation of dairy companies continued in Europe amid expectations of stagnation and reduction in milk production in the long term. According to the IFCN forecast, a gradual market adjustment is expected from the second half of 2026, when lower prices will begin to restrain production and contribute to the restoration of an upward price trend. By 2030, milk production in the EU may decrease by 10 million tons due to regulatory pressure, rising costs, demographic changes, and the impact of climate factors. According to the IFCN forecast, in 2029−2030, the EU is likely to enter a structural deficit of raw milk.