According to IFCN data, in August 2026, the combined global milk price indicator stood at 46.8 USD/100 kg SCM.

As of the end of August 2026, the price of raw milk in Ukraine stands at about 38 USD/100 kg in terms of milk with 4% fat and 3.3% protein. Therefore, preconditions are created for Ukrainian producers for further growth in procurement prices, although a rapid convergence with the level of world prices should not be expected.

It is important to understand: the world price is not an automatic forecast of the Ukrainian procurement price. The domestic level will be influenced by the balance of milk in Ukraine, processor demand, exports of finished products, imports, the exchange rate, and the competitiveness of Ukrainian dairy products.

Are there grounds to expect world prices to grow?

IFCN estimates current futures prices until the end of 2026 in the range of 45−52 USD/100 kg SCM.

Average level across major markets:

• New Zealand — 52 USD/100 kg;
• EU — 49 USD/100 kg;
• USA — 45 USD/100 kg.

During August 2026, prices rose by 4.6%, 1.7%, and 3.9%, respectively.

At the same time, IFCN forecasts that the average world price in 2026, due to a slump in the first half of the year, will be around 45−47 USD/100 kg.

In the short term, a significant supply of dairy commodities and accumulated stocks will restrain growth.

However, the situation may change as early as the beginning of 2027. IFCN allows for a reduction in milk production in Europe, Oceania, and Latin America due to low profitability, drought, and the possible impact of El Niño. This may create preconditions for world prices to rise.

Feed becomes the second major risk factor

Simultaneously with milk prices, it is necessary to monitor the feed market.

In August, the IFCN global feed price indicator rose to 25 USD/100 kg, or by 0.4% per month.

In the corn market, prices are pressed by expectations of lower yields in the US, drought in the EU, and weather risks in Latin America.

In the soybean market, the situation is still more stable thanks to high production in the US. However, lower yields and a reduction in protein meal production in Europe, particularly in Ukraine, may limit supply.

Heat is a problem not only for cows anymore, but also for the feed base

IFCN draws attention to another important trend: the risk of deterioration in feed quality is becoming increasingly important.

According to expert estimates, the quantity of feed in many regions may remain sufficient, however, its quality becomes less predictable.

This can lead to:

• an increase in diet cost;
• the need for additional use of concentrated feeds;
• deterioration of feed conversion;
• a decrease in productivity;
• an increase in milk cost of production.

For Ukraine, this is especially relevant after another period of high temperatures. Therefore, the quality of corn silage, haylage, and other roughages becomes not only a feeding issue, but a direct factor in the economics of a dairy farm.

What does this mean for the Ukrainian milk producer in the next 6−12 months?

1. $ 45/100 kg is no longer an abstract global figure

In terms of identical basic parameters (4% fat and 3.3% protein), the Ukrainian raw milk price (about $ 38/100 kg) lags behind the global IFCN indicator by almost a quarter.

This means that potential for growth in the Ukrainian price exists.

But for its realization, a corresponding ratio of supply and demand on the domestic market and a favorable situation on the global dairy market are required.

2. A high price in itself does not guarantee high profitability

If world milk prices rise simultaneously with prices for feed, energy sources, and other resources, part of the additional margin will be lost.

Therefore, the key indicator for a farm remains not simply the milk price, but the margin per 1 kg of milk.

In the coming months, it is especially necessary to control:

• cost of production of 1 kg of milk;
• feed expenses per 1 kg of milk;
• cow productivity;
• feed conversion;
• herd maintenance costs;
• milk quality.

3. $ 45/100 kg will become a real opportunity only with competitive Ukrainian processing

This is perhaps one of the most important conclusions for the Ukrainian dairy sector.

If Ukrainian processing cannot produce products competitive on foreign markets, the world price of $ 45−47/100 kg will not automatically transform into a corresponding price for the Ukrainian farmer.

Therefore, the issues of processing modernization, export development, production of value-added products, and efficient logistics are directly linked to the possibility of raising the milk procurement price.

4. The Ukrainian sector needs to prepare for more transparent pricing

IFCN separately drew attention to amendments to Article 148 of EU Regulation No. 1308/2013, which were adopted on July 8 and published on July 29, 2026 (by EU Regulation 2026/1739): the updated version of Article 148 initiates a large-scale reform of rules regarding the strengthening of the farmers' position in the food supply chain and will apply from August 19, 2028.

Written contracts between producers and buyers become a standard element of the market, and the price formation mechanism becomes one of the central elements of the contract.

We note that Ukraine already has a developed system of written contracts between milk producers and processors, which includes delivery terms, quality, logistics, payment, liability, and regular agreement on the procurement price. Therefore, the implementation of the updated Article 148 of EU Regulation No. 1308/2013 for the Ukrainian dairy sector should not consist of the formal introduction of mandatory written contracts. The main task should be to increase the transparency of the price formation mechanism and its adaptation to European principles of objectivity, predictability, and the transmission of market signals to the producer.

In the future, the producer should receive an answer not only to the question «What is the milk price today?» but also to the question «By what formula is my price formed and how is it connected to dairy product prices, the global market, and production and processing costs?»

Main conclusion

The world dairy market gives the Ukrainian sector grounds for cautious optimism.

The current world price of 46.8 USD/100 kg and the IFCN forecast of 45−47 USD/100 kg significantly exceed the current Ukrainian level, which reached only 38 USD/100 kg.

However, Ukrainian producers should not simply wait for the world price to «reach» Ukraine.

The next 6−12 months for the entire dairy industry should become a period of:

efficiency improvement → cost of production reduction → strengthening of the feed base → processing modernization → export development → transition to more transparent pricing.

Then the potential growth in the world price will become for the Ukrainian producer not just good news, but a real opportunity to increase the profitability of the dairy business.

avm-ua.org